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Risks and Scenarios

Mali remains exposed to numerous risks and vulnerabilities, some of which are nested within larger regional problems, related to climate change, the proliferations of arms, drugs trafficking, terrorism, consequences of internal and external conflicts, epidemics and pandemics, political instability, economic and financial crisis, high population growth etc. Over the policy period all of these risks and vulnerabilities may, on their own or in any combination, affect the ability to achieve Denmark’s overall vision and the strategic objectives.

Specific key risks requiring attention include:
• Deteriorating commitment to the implementation of the Algiers Peace Agreement by one or several parties, leading to failure of the peace process and increasing violence;
• Failure to deliver tangible benefits to Northern communities within a reasonable timeframe, resulting in increased mistrust , leveraging arguments of spoilers;
• A reduction in the strength of the international and Malian security forces in the North, opening opportunities for actors to step up violent activities, resulting in increased insecurity and lack of protection of civilians;
• Deteriorating democratic governance and legitimacy of the government, resulting in increased political instability;
• Further instability in Mali’s surrounding countries affecting the political, security and economic situation in Mali negatively.

The Country Policy operates with three major scenarios (cf. box 4) that will guide Denmark’s engagement with Mali during the policy period. All three scenarios or a mixture of them are considered likely and can in principle become reality, underlining the fragility of the situation and the need to have realistic ambitions and maintain flexibility.

Danida

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark
Danida
Asiatisk Plads 2 
DK-1448 Copenhagen K
Tel. +45 33 92 00 00
Fax +45 32 54 05 33
um@um.dk