About the Romanian market

Economic Overview - 2026

Note: 2026 and 2027 are forecasts.

Romania's economy has faced significant headwinds in 2025 and into 2026. GDP growth slowed to just 0.7% in 2025 - down from 0.9% in 2024 - as sweeping fiscal consolidation measures, including a reduction on public wages and substantial VAT and excise increases, dampened private consumption. Conditions have remained challenging in early 2026, with falling industrial output.

A key driver of economic difficulty has been a sharp surge in inflation. Following the war in the Middle East, annual inflation climbed to approximately 9.9% year-on-year in March 2026 - well above the National Bank of Romania's target. Average inflation for 2025 reached 7.3%, and the full-year 2026 average is forecast at around 7-8%. 2027 will see a sharp decline to approximately 3.2-4% in 2027 as energy-related base effects fade and demand pressures ease. The European Commission forecasts GDP growth of approximately 1.1% for 2026, accelerating to above 2% in 2027 as fiscal consolidation eases and private investment recovers. The OECD projects 2.2% growth in 2027, while the IMF is slightly more optimistic at 2.5%. The government deficit, which peaked at 9.3% of GDP in 2024, is also projected to decline to 6.2% in 2026 and approximately 5.9% in 2027 as fiscal consolidation measures take hold. This reflects that the Romanian private and public economy will recover and the effects are somewhat short-term. Combining this with the economic reforms stressing on investments rather than private consumption and the upcoming EU-funds, Romania remains an attractive market for long-term investments.

One other notable positive consequence of the economic slowdown has been a narrowing of the trade deficit in 2026. The sharp contraction in private consumption has curtailed import demand more than it has affected exports, which have continued on a broadly positive trend supported by slowing wage growth and resilient EU demand. The European Commission expects this trend to continue, with the slowdown in import-heavy consumption and resilient exports gradually reducing Romania's large external deficit into 2027. This was also a trend before economical pressure. The first eleven months of 2025, Romania's trade deficit narrowed to EUR 29.8 billion from EUR 30.1 billion a year earlier, with exports growing 3.9% while imports rose only 2.6%.

Wages and Migration
As of 2025, Romania's gross minimum wage rose to RON 4,050 (approximately EUR 810), up from RON 3,700 in 2024. The average gross monthly wage as of early 2026 stands at approximately RON 7,200 (around EUR 1,440), though real wages have turned negative due to high inflation which is estimated to hit an erosion of -5,6 % for 2026. Notably this could result in demand of higher wages. Bucharest continues to record the highest wages in the country.

Sector-specific wages vary considerably:

• Energy: 9.500 RON/month (EUR 1900)
• IT and tech sector: RON 14,000-20,409/month (EUR 2800-4,100)
• Agriculture: RON 4,500–5,000/month (EUR 905–1,005)
• Construction: RON 4,582/month (EUR 920)

This shows great potential to open domestic production in Romania. Romania's unemployment rate has risen to approximately 6% in early 2026 (up from 5% in Q2 2024). The European Commission projects unemployment will gradually decline to 5.6% over 2026-2027 as economic conditions stabilise. Youth unemployment remains a structural challenge, with Romania placing among the EU's highest. The public wage freeze implemented in 2025-2026, and the reduction introduced in the state budget for 2026 has slowed nominal wage growth significantly, turning real wage growth negative amid elevated inflation for public workers.

As of 2024, approximately 3.15 million Romanians reside in other EU member states, making Romania the EU country with the highest number of citizens living abroad. A significant portion work under short-term contracts, spending several months abroad before returning home. Romanian communities are notably present in Spain, Italy, and the United Kingdom.

Energy
Romania’s energy sector is undergoing a structural transformation, driven by rapid renewable expansion, EU decarbonisation targets, and ongoing energy security concerns. As part of the broader European shift toward energy autonomy, Romania is increasing domestic generation while reducing reliance on imports.

As of 2025, roughly 60% of Romania’s electricity is generated from low-carbon sources, including hydropower, nuclear, wind, and solar. Hydropower accounts for around 20–25%, while wind and solar together contribute approximately 15–20%, depending on weather conditions. Fossil fuels, primarily natural gas and coal, still represent just over 30% of generation, maintaining Romania’s exposure to carbon-intensive energy. This high reliance on fossil fuels makes Romania a great market for green companies. At the same time, Romania has become a net electricity importer in recent years, with imports typically accounting for around 5–10% of consumption, highlighting the need for continued domestic capacity expansion.

Renewable Energy
Romania has emerged as one of Europe’s fastest-growing renewable energy markets, with solar energy driving much of this expansion. In 2025, the country added an estimated 2–2.5 GW of new solar PV capacity, marking a third consecutive year of record growth and bringing total installed capacity to over 7 GW. This growth has been supported by both distributed generation and utility-scale projects, with prosumers playing a major role in capacity additions.

Wind power remains a key component of the energy mix, with installed capacity reaching approximately 3.4–3.5 GW in 2025. While near-term projections suggest moderate growth, Romania’s long-term wind potential – particularly offshore – is significantly higher. The offshore wind law adopted in 2024 provides a framework for developing an estimated 3–7 GW of capacity in the Black Sea, although implementation remains at an early stage.

Hydropower continues to be Romania’s largest renewable source. Its extensive existing infrastructure provides system stability but also introduces variability during drought periods.

Battery energy storage systems (BESS) are expanding rapidly from a low base. Installed capacity increased from around 130 MW at the start of 2025 to several hundred megawatts by year-end, supported by regulatory reforms such as the removal of double taxation on stored electricity. While capacity is expected to grow significantly in the coming years, projections remain depend on market incentives, grid integration, and project execution.

Romania is also integrating into European electricity markets. Its participation in the Association of Issuing Bodies (AIB) framework, expected to be fully implemented in the coming years, will enable cross-border trading of Guarantees of Origin and support the development of corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs).

Energy Efficiency
Energy efficiency remains one of Romania’s most pressing structural challenges, particularly in the building sector. The country has an aging building stock, with millions of residential units constructed before modern insulation standards, resulting in high energy consumption for heating and cooling.

Through its National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR), Romania has allocated approximately €2.9 billion to building renovation and energy efficiency improvements. These investments target both public and residential buildings, aiming to reduce energy demand, improve living conditions, and lower emissions. Implementation includes large-scale renovation programmes and the development of advisory services to support households.

Romania has also experienced rapid growth in prosumers, with hundreds of thousands of households and businesses now generating their own electricity. Installed prosumer capacity has expanded significantly since 2022, reflecting strong policy incentives and rising energy prices.

Under EU obligations, Romania has committed to substantial energy savings over the 2021–2030 period, although the European Commission has indicated that current targets may need to be strengthened to align fully with updated directives. A comprehensive national building renovation strategy is in development and will set long-term targets through 2050.

More broadly, Romania has allocated a significant share of its EU funding to the green transition, including investments in clean energy, transport, and industrial decarbonisation. However, the transition remains gradual: the phase-out of coal has been delayed in part to safeguard energy security and employment, with some capacity expected to remain operational into the late 2020s.

Agriculture
Romania's agricultural sector continues to play a pivotal role in the national economy, even as its relative share of GDP has diminished due to broader economic diversification.

• Agriculture's share of GDP declined to 3.2% in 2024, down from 3.9% in 2023, continuing a long-term trend of diversification. Recurrent drought years, including the severe 2024 drought, have reinforced the shift toward winter crops such as wheat and barley, at the expense of non-irrigated spring crops like corn.
• Romania accounts for around a quarter of the EU’s agricultural workforce of the total EU agricultural workforce, representing approximately 1.77 million jobs – the highest share in the Union. Of note, 44.3% of Romanian farmers are over 65, pointing to a significant aging workforce challenge.
• The agricultural landscape remains highly fragmented, with approximately 90% of farms covering fewer than 5 hectares. Romania holds around one third of all farms in the EU, but the vast majority are subsistence-scale operations.
• Romania achieved a record wheat harvest in 2025 of around 12–13 million tonnes – up from 2024's drought-hit 9.29 million tonnes and the highest since 1997. For the 2025/2026 marketing season, estimates from the Romanian Farmers' Association range between 13.3 and 14 million tonnes. Romania exported approximately 5.48 million tonnes of wheat in 2025, with a total value of EUR 1.24 billion.
• Romania's livestock sector as of end-2024 comprised approximately 3.26 million pigs and 1.82 million bovines. Romania holds 18.5% of the EU's total sheep population. The second largest share after Spain. Pig and cattle numbers face ongoing downward pressure; the government has earmarked EUR 560 million for 2025–2026 to expand pig production capacity.
• Romania has access to EUR 15.4 billion in agricultural funding under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) for the 2021–2027 programming period. This includes EUR 8.5 billion for direct payments under Pillar I and EUR 6.9 billion for rural development under Pillar II, with approximately EUR 1 billion allocated to eco-schemes promoting environmentally friendly farming practices.

Infrastructure
Romania's infrastructure has continued to develop, with particularly notable progress in road transport. By end-2024, the total motorway and expressway network reached 1,269 km, following the opening of 194.77 km of new roads during the year. Romania's 2025 targets included the addition of over 200 km of motorways and expressways, with key projects such as the DEx12-expressway and Bacau connections, further sections of the A7, and continued construction of the A0 Bucharest Beltway. This sets a strong base for further expansion in 2026 and beyond.

Since joining the Schengen Area as a full member in 2025, cross-border movement into and from Hungary and Bulgaria has become significantly easier, benefiting both trade and travel.

Romania's maritime infrastructure is anchored by the Port of Constanta, the largest port on the Black Sea, serving as a key transit hub for goods moving between Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Complementary Danube ports – including Galati, Braila, and Calarasi – support bulk cargo transport, and the Danube–Black Sea Canal enhances connectivity between inland waterways and the sea.

Romania operates 17 airports handling international traffic. Henri Coanda International Airport in Bucharest approaching or exceeding pre-pandemic records (~14–15 million) – consolidating its position as the one of main aviation hub in Southeast Europe. Together with Baneasa Airport, Bucharest's two airports handled nearly 15-16 million passengers in 2025, a record 10.3% increase on 2024. A new terminal at Henri Coanda with a planned capacity of 30 million passengers annually is in the early design phase. Other key airports include Cluj-Napoca, Timisoara, and Iasi. Romanian airports offer numerous international connections, including direct flights to Danish cities such as Copenhagen and Billund.

IT&C
Romania's IT industry continues its decade-long growth trajectory, driven by a large and skilled talent pool, strong telecom infrastructure, government digitalisation efforts, and sustained foreign investment. As of early 2026, the sector employs over 200,000 software engineers (up from 192,000 in 2023 and 140,000 in 2020) with Bucharest accounting for a majority share. The broader ICT sector generates a stable revenue stream of around EUR 20 billion annually, contributing approximately 6.2% of GDP. ICT exports are growing steadily, reaching several billion USD annually.

A notable structural shift took effect in January 2025 when the longstanding income tax exemption for IT professionals got reduced as part of government's fiscal consolidation package. This has raised effective labour costs for the sector and may put some upward pressure on developer salaries, narrowing, though not eliminating, Romania's cost advantage relative to peers such as Poland and the Czech Republic. Despite this headwind, Romania's talent pipeline remains robust, with approximately 10,000 ICT graduates entering the workforce annually.

The PNRR Digitalization of SMEs programme continues to support the sector, with grants available for digital transformation projects across non-IT businesses. Romania's broader National Recovery and Resilience Plan allocates over 21% of its EUR 28.5 billion total value to digital transition, including EUR 1.4 billion to digitalize public administration and EUR 1.16 billion for digital education. The government's Governmental Cloud initiative and investments in cybersecurity and digital identity remain ongoing priorities.

Looking ahead, Romania's IT sector is expected to continue expanding in 2026 and beyond, underpinned by 5G rollout underway, a growing start-up ecosystem, and increasing demand for AI, automotive software, and IoT solutions.

Education
The public education system in Romania is structured across several levels, ensuring a comprehensive approach to learning for students of various ages and needs. The system is governed by the Pre-university Education Law and the Higher Education Law, and follows the International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED), divided into 9 levels. Higher education follows the standard European three-cycle structure: bachelor’s, master’s, and doctoral programmes.

Romania has a well-developed higher education sector, with major academic centres in cities such as Cluj-Napoca, Iași, and Bucharest. Leading institutions include Babeș-Bolyai University, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Politehnica University of Bucharest, University of Bucharest, and Bucharest University of Economic Studies. As of recent data, total student enrolment exceeds half a million across bachelor’s, master’s, and doctoral programmes.

Danish Companies in Romania
The Romanian Commerce Registry (ONRC) has registered 606 Danish companies in 2026, with an average Danish ownership participation of 86%. The primary sectors attracting Danish investment include transport, the food industry and agriculture, and domestic and international trade. Most Danish-owned companies in Romania are located in Bucharest, followed by Transylvania.

A large number of Danish companies looking to enter the Romanian market have done so through the Commercial Department of the Danish Mission in Bucharest. An informal business network – the Danish Romanian Business Association (DRBA) – facilitates connections between Danish and Romanian business communities, and is affiliated with the largest business organisation in Romania, which serves as the main interlocutor with the Romanian Government.